Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 2.263648 2.396662 2.541034 2.710886 2.907313 3.130038 3.405819
2025-05-04 2.115443 2.283905 2.475113 2.712200 3.004454 3.362260 3.850383
2025-05-11 2.015808 2.205690 2.428077 2.714672 3.085903 3.570345 4.292236
2025-05-18 1.908423 2.105701 2.341380 2.652855 3.070142 3.640168 4.549617
2025-05-25 1.842922 2.049673 2.301437 2.642558 3.115555 3.794012 4.964471
2025-06-01 1.784835 1.997976 2.261637 2.626441 3.147603 3.928989 5.383842
2025-06-08 1.731947 1.949157 2.221390 2.604802 3.166956 4.044267 5.803341
2025-06-15 1.703233 1.928850 2.216014 2.629178 3.254693 4.282632 6.569113
2025-06-22 1.637951 1.858438 2.140397 2.548759 3.173292 4.217037 6.624060
2025-06-29 1.604303 1.827572 2.115960 2.539594 3.201931 4.351284 7.238256
2025-07-06 1.557749 1.778019 2.063934 2.486900 3.155580 4.338738 7.453752
2025-07-13 1.545494 1.772956 2.071986 2.522581 3.256405 4.626549 8.784237
2025-07-20 1.540937 1.778854 2.096656 2.586966 3.417413 5.089391 11.527607
2025-07-27 1.516522 1.756922 2.080990 2.587891 3.466896 5.323510 13.932850
2025-08-03 1.494207 1.736917 2.066953 2.590075 3.518481 5.578606 17.662013
2025-08-10 1.456010 1.693983 2.018304 2.534140 3.455225 5.526637 18.615881
2025-08-17 1.433616 1.672106 1.999245 2.524808 3.480295 5.717654 24.171430
2025-08-24 1.410998 1.649214 1.977781 2.510197 3.493421 5.881186 33.146981
2025-08-31 1.388184 1.625400 1.954092 2.490564 3.494551 6.011935 49.814817
2025-09-07 1.378159 1.619006 1.955636 2.512678 3.582492 6.445100 NaN
2025-09-14 1.342910 1.576439 1.902212 2.439633 3.465752 6.170520 458.189606
2025-09-21 1.326412 1.559912 1.887207 2.431292 3.485409 6.371405 NaN
2025-09-28 1.300031 1.528932 1.849804 2.383277 3.417079 6.249225 NaN